Quick thoughts on the nominations this morning…my list is coming from the New York Times blog after watching on NY1:

Play Revival | 8:42 a.m.

“Joe Turner’s Come and Gone”
“Mary Stuart”
“The Norman Conquests”
“Waiting for Godot”

No surprises here. I’ve only seen Godot, and was definitely impressed.  I think Mary Stuart is more likely to win in the acting categories, and I think that Norman Conquests is too much  of an amorphous monster (three shows? six hours?) to really garner votes.  I’ll call it between Joe Turner and Godot for now.

Musical Revival | 8:41 a.m.

“Guys and Dolls”
“Pal Joey”
“West Side Story”

Two horse race, much as we’d suspect. Guys and Dolls and Pal Joey were critically reviled. The other two were loved.  I still think West Side is the show to beat — it’s West Side after all.

Leading Actress in a Musical | 8:39 a.m.

Stockard Channing, “Pal Joey”
Sutton Foster, “Shrek the Musical”
Allison Janney, “9 to 5″
Alice Ripley, “Next to Normal”
Josefina Scaglione, “West Side Story”

Next to Normal is going to be a mini-juggernaut. It still looks and sounds like something I’d hate, but it’s gathering momentum. I feel confident about Ripley here — theater folks love her.  But the interview she’s giving on NY1 right now is a little bizarre. Pat Kiernan looks a little miserable  and lost.

Leading Actor in a Musical | 8:38 a.m.

The Three Billy Elliots, “Billy Elliot”
Gavin Creel, “Hair”
Brian d’Arcy James, “Shrek the Musical”
Constantine Maroulis, “Rock of Ages”
J. Robert Spencer, “Next to Normal”

It’s hard to imagine voters not being overwhelmed by the three Billys.

Score | 8:38 a.m.

“Billy Elliot”
“Next to Normal”
“9 to 5″
“Shrek the Musical”

If Next to Normal sneaks in here, it’ll be a real interesting night.

Leading Actress in a Play | 8:37 a.m. 
Hope Davis, “God of Carnage”
Jane Fonda, “33 Variations”
Marsha Gay Harden, “God of Carnage”
Janet McTeer, “Mary Stuart”
Harriet Walter, “Mary Stuart”

Jane Fonda will garner support, but McTeer seems like the frontrunner here.  Will the two Mary Stuart actors cancel each other out?

Best Play | 8:26 a.m. 
“Dividing the Estate”
“God of Carnage”
“resons to be pretty”
“33 Variations”

I’m going to bite my tongue.

Best Musical | 8:26 a.m. 
“Billy Elliot”
“Next to Normal”
“Rock of Ages”
“Shrek the Musical”

Congrats to David Lindsay-Abaire and company for the Shrek nod,And the Rock of Ages nod is a bit of a shocker — big congrats to them for pulling this whole Broadway run out — but this is down to the Billy monster and the little show that could. I think the monster is going to win. 


There are lots more awards, of course, but I’ll say this: I’m not very excited about most of this year’s nominees.  Except for Karen Olivo.