Not yet, at least. We knew West Side Story would sell. We knew Wicked wasn’t going to tank. And I think, for the most part, we’re not entirely shocked by this. People still want to see Broadway shows. A lot of the dead weight has been cleared from the boards, and the stuff that’s left is managing to sell tickets.
The new shows will be interesting: lots of short runs, lots of big stars — the market probably can’t support them all. People probably won’t panic though, since shows probably won’t close all that early. The really interesting part of the Times article is here:
Among producers and press agents, concerns about the months ahead on Broadway have less to do with the number of shows opening this spring than with the ability to raise capital to finance new shows for next season, as well as the marketing calculations — ticket pricing, discounts, building word of mouth — needed to draw audiences.
This spring should provide extensive evidence for what lies ahead, with the large number of diverse shows — from the plays “God of Carnage” and “Mary Stuart,” which had successful productions in London — to original American works like the plays “Impressionism” and “33 Variations” and the musicals “9 to 5” and “Next to Normal.”
“The biggest concern at this point is how the spring shows do: If they do well, or relatively well, then the shows in the pipeline will go ahead,” Ms. St. Martin said. “If they don’t do well, then we may have a problem for the next season. We just don’t know yet.”
It’s hard to predict next season based on the success of this season. I think it’s going to continue to be show-to-show. But as the economy keeps tanking (and it will), producers are going to have to find new roads to success.