The Truth About The Shows That Closed.

The Times has a couple of articles about Sunday’s big Broadway closing day. Nine shows shut down (with more shutting down later this month). This is a bad thing, of course; you never want to see all those folks out-of-work, all those writers losing out on royalty checks. And yes, it’s a sign of the economic times; in the past, you’d never get nine shows closing in one day, not even in January. All that said, what did Broadway really lose this week, and what will it lose for the rest of the month?

For the purposes of this discussion, we’ll be avoiding the big financial impacts: the loss of jobs, the loss of rental income, and all the business related stuff which, truly, is unavoidable and the real sadness of this all. I’m interested purely in the shows right now. My list (and the links) come straight from the Isherwood article.

The Broadway shows closing this month:

‘ALL MY SONS,’ closes on Jan. 11. — Limited run from the start, which means it’s not closing early. Been playing to packed houses (96% in the last week of 2008), made back its investment, affirmed Katie Holmes as a bankable star (sort of), an unquestionable hit. Not a victim of the economy. Could have run a lot longer if the stars were available.

‘BOEING-BOEING,’ closed Sunday. — Made its money back. Outperformed expectations, in my opinion, making it to a partial replacement cast (including The Noxzema Girl, who was pretty good and very pretty {prettier than Natalie Portman [I've given it a lot of thought, and Ms. Portman just isn't pretty like people say she is, folks], I think} ). It’ll do well on tour. Mark Rylance reached the end of his contract,  and while they surely could have renegotiated, without him, the show would have run its course. An unqualified success. Maybe a bit of a victim, but certainly not a tragedy.

‘DIVIDING THE ESTATE,’ closed Sunday. I wasn’t a fan of this show personally, but it played to pretty full houses most (if not all) of its run. It was a Lincoln Center/Primary Stages production, which means (a) it was a not-for-profit venture, which changes the rules a bit, and (b) it was a limited run. It will move on to a run at Hartford Stage with the same cast (for the most part — Elizabeth Ashley moves on to August: Osage County). I’d call this one a success, and I’d say it’s not really a victim.

‘GREASE,’ closed Sunday — Let’s be honest about this Grease. It was all conceived as a reality show prize. It was tame, innocent, nothing like the overtly sexual and faux dangerous film (and full disclosure, I didn’t see this production, but saw enough performances at parades and other places to feel confident in my judgement), and still, it was Grease, which means it could make money in its sleep. I don’t think the Broadway production recouped (I could easily be wrong on that), but there’s a national tour with Taylor Hicks that should make a fortune. I won’t call this a hit, but it’s certainly not a disaster, and should make money. Probably a victim, but with an almost two-year run and the tour in progress, I wouldn’t cry for this one.

‘GYPSY,’ closes on Jan. 11. — Okay…here’s a victim. Sort of. This wasn’t a limited run show, but Patti Lupone’s contract was scheduled to end in March, and if she didn’t re-up, the show would have closed then. The only thing that matters with this show is the lead performance; it’s not a show you can recast. The decision to close in January was clearly a product of the economy, and proof that even the best reviews ever couldn’t necessarily save a show in times like these. I’m sure it didn’t make a ton of money, and it’s not likely to tour, but this certainly has to be considered an artistic success (I didn’t love it, but I saw it early). Still a clear victim — the first one so far.

And that seems like a good place to take a break. Part Two will follow…soon.

A New Thing Every Day.

That’s my goal for 2009. Most of these things will be New York things, except when I’m not in New York. “New” is open to interpretation in all this, as is “thing.” In fact, the definition of “every day” could eventually be stretched as well. When not otherwise specified, you can assume that whatever I’m mentioning is a play I saw.

Here’s what I’ve done so far:

1/1: Besides winning a game of Scene It in dominating fashion (which totally doesn’t count, but I had to mention it), I saw Dust Off-Broadway.

1/2: Becky Shaw at Second Stage.

1/3: Boeing-Boeing on Broadway.

1/4: Ethiopian food at Ghenet in Brooklyn. Oh man, that was good.

I’m not sure what I’ve got planned for tomorrow.

I Want to See Boeing-Boeing.

I already did, but this Playbill feature makes me really want to see it:

“I compare it to a musical in terms of the energy it takes,” said Greg Germann, who replaced Whitford in September. “It’s a freight train — or I should say a high-speed train going at full tilt. You just got to get on board and hold on.”

Missi Pyle joined the cast the same time as Germann, following Mary McCormack into the role of the domineering German stewardess Gretchen. “It’s by far the most taxing thing I’ve ever done,” she said. “I met Mary before taking the part. The cast was all bruised and battered. I said ‘What’s going on?’”

Broadway: Best of Times, Worst of Times.

Michael Riedel wrote an article today about the grim state of the Broadway stage.  His argument is tied, not surprisingly, to the recently announced closings of Hairspray, Spamalot, and Spring Awakening.  Each of those shows was expected to run a lot longer than it did.  I’ve seen the first two shows, and think they’re great Broadway works, and it’s a shame to lose them prematurely.  (I’ve still got a Hairspray post sitting around someplace — I’ll post it before they close, I promise.)  I haven’t seen Spring Awakening, but I’ll find a way to sneak into it before it’s gone too.  Even so, each of these shows have had respectable runs, if shorter than hoped (although even there, I’d say each of these shows did a bit better than might have been originally expected).

Riedel also cites three shows (13, Boeing Boeing, and A Tale of Two Cities – see what I did with that title?) as being “in the quicksand,” finding themselves in danger of closing soon.  As a point of fact, I’ll just mention that none of those three could have been considered sure things at any point in their runs or development by any stretch of the imagination.  Boeing Boeing might even have overperformed, thanks to its Tony win; it has recouped its investment and is sending out a tour.  The other two shows were each trying to capitalize on existing monster hits (High School Musical and Les Miserables, respectively), at least in terms of perception, and I wouldn’t consider it a shock or an aberration for either to close quickly.

The situation is bad, yes.  Money is tight all around.  Broadway costs are high (I mean the costs of putting a show together, not tickets — although that’s applicable too).  Broadway audiences tend to come from out of town — so what happens when the US economy tanks?  There are lots of concerns, for sure, and we haven’t seen the worst of the crisis.

But.

Riedel says: “New shows will be arriving in the spring – “Hair” will go to the Shubert – but there’s very little on the horizon that looks like a “Wicked”-size smash.”  I’m not so sure.  Take a look at what’s opening this season:

9 to 5 — Certainly not a guaranteed hit, but a Dolly Parton score, a good cast including Allison Janney, and a woman-centric storyline.

American Buffalo — Mamet with stars.  Stars that appeal to different ethnic groups — Leguizamo and Cedric will drive tickets for sure.   Open-ended run, meaning that new stars can slide in and out to keep tickets moving.

Billy Elliot — Juggernaut in London (although I hated it).  Maybe it won’t translate to the US.  Maybe it will.  If it does, it could be a monster.

Shrek — If this isn’t a potential juggernaut, I don’t know what is.  (I resisted the urge to call it a monster hit, but you know.)  Big title, great creative team, big-time Broadway cast.

Vanities — Okay, now this one looks like it could close fast.  No big title, no huge stars, pretty small and low-concept.  Then again…it’s a three character musical (which means it’s a cheap musical), it’s intermissionless (which makes it a fun, quick night at the theater, which should help word of mouth), it’s about women and friendship and nostalgia, and it’s been a hit (in play form) everywhere it’s been before.  If this was an NFL fantasy draft, this would be your sleeper RB pick.

Waiting for Godot: Limited time JUG GER NAUT.  Nathan Lane in Beckett?  This could be the not-for-profit event of the year.  And as I mentioned before, Bill Irwin is the really exciting part of this whole project.  This will be a huge hit for the few months it’s up.

West Side Story — MONSTER.  There’s no guarantee, of course; the last Broadway revival was in 1980 and ran for only 333 performances.  But it’s West Side Story, for god’s sake.  I just hope that it and In The Heights can coexist.

You’re Welcome America: A Final Night with George W. Bush — Will Ferrell on Broadway.  Playing W.  Limited run.  Spamalot will have already closed.  This is THE boy musical of Broadway for those two months.  Anyone who gets me tickets to this wins at life.

And that’s not mentioned Spider-Man, which, truth be told, could be the biggest financial disaster in Broadway history, or could make $300 million and change the way things are done at that scale.  Nor does it take into consideration Godspell, for colored girls…, Brigadoon, or Nice Work If You Can Get It, all of which have technically “postponed” their runs and could pop back onto the radar with open theaters (and an aggressive investor or two).

Nor does it mention any of the Off-Broadway shows that could end up as transfers based on buzz; I’ve heard buzz for Taking Over, Danny Hoch’s genius one-man show (read: Danny Hoch’s genius “cheap” show), and Beau Willimon’s Farragut North (which was originally rumored to open on Broadway with Jake Gyllenhaal.   Who knows what else could pop up?  Last time Mos Def and Jeffrey Wright did a show together at The Public, it moved to Broadway.  They’re working together again on a John Guare play.  Think that’s not a contender?

Nor does it mention the new TKTS booth in Times Square, or the new one in Brooklyn, both of which should help a steady stream of discounters find their ways to the struggling shows.

Yes, I understand that not all of these will hit.  Not all of them will recoup.  Some will flame out spectacularly.  And yes, there’s a lot of star casting involved, and movie remakes, and all the stuff that folks hate about Broadway (although no jukeboxes, interestingly).  And yes, there will be huge financial hits to come, and Broadway will suffer as the rest of the country suffers.  Who knows what will happen to investors?  To audiences?  To the city itself?

But a disaster?  Maybe I’m I’m being a little too Tracy Turnblad enthusiastic/naive, but I don’t see it as a disaster just yet.

(Oh yeah…I forgot Dirty Dancing too.)